What a fucking weird year, as evidenced by the fact that I'm still talking about 2020 as though it's happening. Its influence reverberates through our lives like the stench of a particularly foul dog burp, and indeed, here I am doing my annual Oscars post in April rather than February. So come, shadow people in my head, let us scamper through the grim mire of this year's nominations.
Actually, for all that, there are some good films nominated this year. I know Bill Maher bitched about how they're all depressing, but like, that's the kind of thing you say if you don't really pay attention to the Oscars - they're always like that. I will say, though, that there are almost no light movies on offer this year (at least in the categories I watched) - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is, of course, a comedy, but beyond that we get into Another Round and Promising Young Woman, both of which have comedic elements but are hardly comedies.
But, the good news is that there was a hell of lot more diversity across the board, both in terms of POC getting nominated for acting awards (still pretty shy on Latinx folks, though) and a historic two whole women nominated for Best Director!
I'm probably the millionth person to say this, but it'll be interesting to see what happens with movies in general going forward. The festering hell that was 2020 changed the landscape in a lot of ways, not all of them negative, so we'll see what happens when theaters start to reopen more. Me, I'm just looking forward to going to see Mortal Kombat next week.
Let's do some prediction!
Best Actor: Alas, poor Chadwick Boseman. If I'm being honest, I think he really should have been nominated for Supporting Actor here (and really, I guess I'll make Ma Rainey's Black Bottom my yearly grouse about how we need an Ensemble Cast award), but this is, unfortunately, the last chance the Academy will have to honor him. This happened waaaaay back in 2009 with Heath Ledger, too, and back then, I posed the same question I will now: Discounting the fact that Boseman won't get another chance, does he still deserve the award?
He's up against some pretty solid contenders, granted. Anthony Hopkins' performance in the The Father was gut-wrenching (but then, dementia is one of my hot buttons anyway). Steven Yuen also turned in an amazing performance in Minari (which is another movie making a strong argument for an Ensemble Cast award). I don't think either of them are going to win, however, which leaves two more nominees: Riz Ahmed and Gary Oldman.
Of the two, my choice would be Ahmed, hands down. Pushing yourself as an actor doesn't need to be about nearly dying of malnutrition or eating bison liver. Ahmed is a musician, but he's not a metal musician, and the type of music here was different for him. Not to mention learning sign and portraying someone joining, and then ultimately rejecting and being rejected by the Deaf community - there's a lot there. Meanwhile, Oldman turns in another good performance in Mank, but like, he was too old for the role, and the "arty Hollywood back-pat" movie gets through into sharper relief when the other ones feel so much more topical.
My Choice: Riz Ahmed, but it's close
My Prediction: Chadwick Boseman, which is fine
Best Actress: Not to sound like a stuck record, but why is Viola Davis here instead of in Supporting Actress? (Same reason Boseman is in Best Actor, I guess.) Her performance was goddamn amazing, sure, and apparently there's some talk she might win, or tie(!) with Carey Mulligan. The third real contender is, of course, Frances McDormand, and she very much anchors Nomadland. Nomadland might also benefit from more eyes on it, since it's gotten buzz, I guess?
In any event, I don't think Andra Day or Vanessa Kirby have much of a shot. The United States vs. Billie Holiday is another installment in the "amazingly talented musician faces hardship and drug addiction" saga, with the added element of the US government declaring war on her, but its pacing is a hot mess. Likewise, Pieces of a Woman has some strong scenes, but the transition from play to movie didn't go especially well.
So we're left with Mulligan, Davis, and McDormand. Of the three, I think Mulligan deserves the win, but I don't know how to call this. But, then again, four predictive awards all went to different nominees, so who the fuck knows?
My Choice: Carey Mulligan
My Prediction: Carey Mulligan or Viola Davis...OR MAYBE BOTH
Best Supporting Actor: Here it gets weird again. Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield are both nominated here for Judas & The Black Messiah, but like, Stanfield is very much the star of the movie and the POV character, so really he and Boseman should swap categories. Sacha Baron Cohen is fun to watch as Abbie Hoffman, and he manages to not quite steal the movie. Leslie Odom, Jr., turned in a great performance in One Night in Miami..., but I would rather the nomination go to Aldis Hodge (but then, I'm a Leverage fan, so).
Then we've also got Paul Raci in Sound of Metal, who does a great job of not only playing his role, but showing the audience (and Ahmed's character) into the Deaf community (Raci himself is hearing, but his parents are deaf so he's fluent in ASL). And who's the Academy going to pick? I think they're gonna go with Kaluuya, because I think they'll want to recognize Get Out (finally, look, I hate it too, but that's how it works). I bet we'll see Stanfield in Best Actor sooner rather than later, though.
My Choice: Paul Raci
My Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya
Best Supporting Actress: I shame to admit, I haven't seen Hillbilly Elegy. I have no real excuse, other than I just didn't want to watch another drama this week and I don't figure Glenn Close is going to win for the performance for which she was also nominated for a Razzie. Actually this race is considered a lock for Youn Yuh-jung for Minari, and perhaps the Academy can, by giving this first Oscar to a Korean actress, shed some of the guilt they carry for not nominating any of the cast of Parasite for acting awards.
Ahem. Our other nominees are Olivia Coleman and Amanda Seyfried, both of whom performed their roles perfectly, and Maria Bakalova, the breakout star of Borat 2. If anyone other than Yuh-jung takes it I'd like it to be her, but I don't think there's much of chance of that.
My Choice & Prediction: Youn Yuh-jung
Best Director: What an interesting spread this year. White dudes in the minority, whaaaaat. Look, I love David Fincher, but fuck me, I hope he doesn't win for Mank. He's done much more interesting work, and any of the other nominees would be more deserving. He's not going anywhere, so the Academy will get another chance, I'm sure. He's not favored to win (every prediction I've seen is for Chloé Zhao), but if there's an upset I bet it'll be his. Blah.
So, Zhao. How do we feel about that? Of the remaining nominees, I think I'd be fine with any of them winning (maybe not Thomas Vinterberg, as much as I liked Another Round, but that's gonna win International Feature so that's fine). Lee Isaac Chung's very personal story comes across in Minari, and Emerald Fennell fucking knocked it out of the park with Promising Young Woman. In terms of the direction of the movie, though, I have to agree with the buzz - this is where Zhao should get honored.
My Choice & Prediction: Chloé Zhao
Best Animated Film: I mean, Soul, right? That's gonna win? Pixar rarely loses, and they have two movies on offer this year (one of which, Onward, was the last movie I saw in theaters before the pandemic closed everything down). Of the others, I freaking loved Wolfwalkers, and I enjoyed A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon more than I thought I would. I wasn't crazy about Over the Moon - it felt cutesy and saccharine, which is a weird complaint for animated movies but Pixar et al have been raising the bar for a while now.
I have to say, though, that if Wolfwalkers isn't going to win (it's not), I'd rather see it go to Onward. I liked Soul, don't get me wrong, but it felt...I don't know, disjointed? Not as smooth as other Pixar movies? I saw the emotions they were trying to evoke, but Onward did a better job hitting the mark.
My Choice: Wolfwalkers
My Prediction: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is nominated here, and Borat the First One With the Long Title was also nominated for a screenplay Oscar. So maybe? The Father and One Night in Miami... are both plays adapted to the screen and they feel like it; of the two I feel like One Night makes the transition better. That leaves Nomadland and The White Tiger. The latter felt a bit like an Adam McKay movie to me, what with the fourth wall breaks and the casual, chatty approach to some pretty dark material. Nomadland, meanwhile, is based on a nonfiction book so the adaptation is mostly about adding a story arc (though I will note that almost all of the actors other than McDormand and David Strathairn are playing fictionalized versions of themselves).
What does all of that mean? I don't know. I feel like if voters are going straight ticket for Chloé Zhao she might win here, too, but then, Sacha Baron Cohen might take it just because his speech would be fun. I'm seeing predictions going a few different ways, so I'll take the safe route.
My Choice: One Night in Miami...
My Prediction: Nomadland
Best Original Screenplay: It's Fennell's to lose. I don't think she's taking Director or Best Picture, and I think this is likely to be the best place to honor Promising Young Woman. I think, too, that the script is the strength, here (that and Mulligan's performance). That's not to say that Minari, Judas & The Black Messiah, Sound of Metal, or The Trial of the Chicago 7 aren't deserving, but like, they're all pretty straightforward or historical stories. I'd like to see the uncomfortable, weird, quasi black comedy that doesn't take an easy ending take this trophy.
My Choice & Prediction: Promising Young Woman
Best Picture: Normally I'd try for 10 films on the prediction list, but I haven't seen all of the Cinematography noms (and I never know how to judge that one anyway) and I haven't seen any of the movies on the Visual Effects list because this year was so goddamn weird. So here we go!
I actually really enjoyed all of the Best Picture nominees, save one. Enjoying a movie isn't the same thing as finding it significant or even rewatchable, of course - I don't know if I'd be excited to re-watch any of the Best Picture noms. There are quite a few milestones this year, as far as nomination goes, and Netflix and Amazon have both come forward as content creators to be reckoned with. It's all very new.
One of the big questions about the Oscars is always: Who cares? There's money to be made, of course; normally studios spend big to get nominations and/or wins, and of course we know that people win for past films as well as the current ones. Careers get rewards as often as individual movies, and actors, especially win because "it's time" rather than because "holy shit this was amazing."
But for all of that, the Oscars remain a bright spot of the year for me. The awards are interesting as a zeitgeist, and if you really want to learn something, you have to take them into account with a lot of other factors (like, say, the fucking pandemic). Not every year is significant, but it kinda feels like this one is.
So what does that mean for the noms? I think we can safely discount The Father. It's good, it's moving, but it's another Alzheimer's story, and it's hardly breaking new ground. I think, likewise, we can count out Minari (I know, I said that about Parasite, too, but Minari doesn't have the same bite, and it'll get its props in other categories).
I don't think The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Judas & The Black Messiah are winning it. Yes, I know, the Academy loves rewarding movies that make them feel like they're fighting racism, but that tends to me white savior narratives, and neither of these movies are that. Then again, will the depiction of the FBI straight up executing Fred Hampton be enough? I don't think it will, but if it's one of these two I think it's likely to be Judas.
But really, I think it's a three-way between Promising Young Woman, Nomadland, and Mank. Mank, BTW, was the one I didn't much like. I'm not saying it wasn't an interesting story, or that the movie isn't solid, I'm just kinda over the formula here. If you want to tell a story about old-timey Hollywood, get into the dirty stuff (Mank waves at it, but doesn't really dig). Also, Oldman was miscast. Mank was in his 40s or late 30s during the events of the movie (it jumps around in time a bit), and while Oldman could pass for 50s, he's actually 63 and I don't buy it. Particularly not when Tuppence Middleton is playing his wife, and she's in her 30s. The age gaps between him and his co-stars are notable and it just looks weird.
Anyway, most of the predictions I'm seeing have Nomadland taking it. I enjoyed Promising Young Woman more, but I'm reflecting on whether that's because the script was more dialog-heavy and presented an ongoing reveal of what really happened that night (but the true events are never shown), which kept my interest. Nomadland is a slower, more subtle and sprawling movie, more a depiction of a lifestyle than a real story. But, as more and more Americans face economic hardship, is it, perhaps, the more relevant? Would Promising Young Woman have hit harder if it had come out two years ago? (But then, if it had, would it have been buried under the many other releases?)
It's hard to know. My gut says Promising Young Woman, so that's what I'm going with.
My Choice: Promising Young Woman
My Prediction: Nomadland