Feed the hungry hip-pip-pos!
Anyway.
Today and tomorrow we clean and cook, and then tomorrow night we eat delicious food and watch millionaires give each other statues. It's pretty cool.
I have to say, the fact that multiple of my friends refer to Oscars night as their favorite holiday is very gratifying to me. It's indulgent, sure, and there are always movies that get nominated that make me grit teeth or roll eyes. But then, about once or twice a year on average, I get to see a movie that really touches me, makes me laugh out loud, brings me to tears, stays in my thoughts. Since I started antidepressants, I ain't gonna lie, it's been harder to get that reaction because I don't tend to feel as vividly (which, when your primary feeling is "you should jump off of something high", is a good thing), so it's nice when it happens. And indeed, this year there were a few movies that really got to me, so call that a win.
So, in no particular order, my thoughts and predictions for 10 categories.
Best Director: Usually I start with acting categories, so why not mix things up? All five Best Director nominees are also up for Best Picture, as is usually the case. Paul Thomas Anderson is here with another story about growing up in the San Fernando valley, but to me it doesn't have the coherence of some of his earlier movies. Kenneth Brannagh is likewise giving us a memoir of his young life with Belfast, and I feel like the movie is a lot more interesting than Licorice Pizza. Jane Campion has the most buzz behind The Power of the Dog, and she's widely believed to be the lock here, but of course our old pal Steven Spielberg is up for the award, too. And then way in the back there's Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car.
But like, Hamaguchi managed to take a three hour movie that's mostly a guy sitting in the back seat of a car listening to a recording, all (well, mostly) in Japanese, and make it moving, interesting, and really watchable. Like, it might be my favorite Best Picture nom. I'm perfectly happy with Campion winning because a) women winning two years in a row would be pretty dope and b) The Power of the Dog was a very well-directed movie, but Hamaguchi has my vote.
My Choice: Ryusuke Hamaguchi
My Prediction: Jane Campion
Best Actress: I finished this category last night, so Parallel Mothers is still on my mind. Honestly, if Pedro Almodóvar had gotten the director nom instead of Anderson, I would have loved that. Penélope Cruz nails her performance as a woman coping with the impossible family situation she finds herself in, but also manages to bring the necessary pathos and passion to the other facets of her life, and that depth of character is pretty amazing (Parallel Mothers was the only movie I cried at this season). And apparently she's getting some buzz here, so maybe she'll take it!
Olivia Coleman is nominated for The Lost Daughter, which I enjoyed while I watched it but doesn't really seem to have stuck with me. Part of it, I think, is that her character in the movie is a terrible person and it's hard to root for her, but of course that just means Coleman (and Jessie Buckley) did her job. Likewise, Jessica Chastain made Tammy Faye Bakker vulnerable and likeable, without turning her story into a hagiography. Kristen Stewart in Spencer showed us how difficult Diana found her royal existence, and frankly I just love that Stewart got nominated. Nicole Kidman...well, look, I really liked Being the Ricardos, and I thought she did a stellar job as Lucille Ball. I will point out, however, that this category is not terribly racially diverse, and if any of them should have not been nominated, it probably should have been Nicole.
My Choice & Prediction: Penélope Cruz
Best Supporting Actress: LADIES FIRST. This category is, from what I understand, a lock for Ariana DeBose, and well done her. As is often the case in musicals, we may root for the leads, but the foils are often the most interesting characters, and DeBose's Anita was one of the best parts of West Side Story. Honestly the only other performance in this category I thought was truly memorable was Jessie Buckley's (again, terrible person, but as the younger Leda Caruso you can at least see how she's torn between her family, her passion, and her obligation). Not to say that Kirsten Dunst, Judi Dench, and Aunjanue Ellis didn't turn in good peformances (Ellis especially), but thinking about the movies now I'm hard pressed to remember specific scenes involving Dunst and Dench. Anyway, I think the right person is going to win here and I hope she delivers her acceptance speech in Spanish.
My Choice & Prediction: Ariana DeBose
Best Animated Feature: Good crop of movies this year, none of this Ferdinand bullshit. I think Encanto is the clear winner here, but I thought Raya & the Last Dragon did some really cool world-building and I appreciated the message of community and collaboration. Likewise, The Mitchells vs. the Machines was probably the funniest of the bunch (and they managed to sneak in some queer content, always nice). Luca was fun, and definitely included some content on family, pressure, and acceptance that I thought was nice. And, of course, Flee was only animated to protect the identity of the lead, which is some pretty heavy shit.
In the end I think Encanto is going to benefit from having a theatrical run, Lin-Manuel Miranda's music, the amazing cast, and how goddamn catchy "We Don't Talk About Bruno" is (though of course that's not the song that was nominated for Best Song, for whatever reason).
My Choice & Prediction: Encanto
Best Supporting Actor: So, right off the bat, I'm not crazy about J.K. Simmons being here. I mean, sure, his portrayal of William Frawley was fun to watch, and Simmons is superb as usual, but this category is all white, and like, no one from Drive My Car? No other actors of color? Not Corey Hawkins? It's nice that Troy Kotsur is nominated (and likely to win), but I think we could have done without Simmons (or, indeed, Ciarán Hinds).
Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemmons, both from The Power of the Dog, were both good, though I think Smit-McPhee's performance was by far the better of the two. If someone other than Kotsur were to win, I'd definitely vote for Smit-McPhee, for his shy, vulnerable, and surprising role here. I think, though, that Kotsur provided a really nice emotional center to CODA, and I'm rooting for him.
My Choice & Prediction: Troy Kotsur
Best Actor: Well, a little more diversity here. We've got Denzel Washington as MacBeth (funny, he doesn't look Scottish) and Will Smith as...Serena and Venus Williams' dad. Of the two, I feel like Smith's role was the bigger stretch, actually. Richard Williams clearly loves his daughters and wants them to succeed, but like, he's a bit of a jerk. The movie was a little nicer to him than it could have been, but it wasn't all glossed over, either. I didn't love Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth, if I'm honest. I found his performance a little flat, although I liked the overall film.
So what about the other guys? Andrew Garfield nailed his performance in Tick...Tick..Boom!, and Benedict Cumberbatch got to be a real dick in The Power of the Dog. Javier Bardem, I think, turned in my favorite performance in this category as Desi Arnaz, but I think the performance only really works up alongside Nicole Kidman's, if that makes sense (and I guess here's as good a place as any for my yearly gripe that there's no Ensemble Cast award).
My Choice: Javier Bardem, I guess
My Prediction: Will Smith
Best Adapted Screenplay: As usual I have not read any of the source material. First of all, I'm a little grumpy that Dune got nominated here (or, like, at all) because I really thought that it was four hours of setup for the actual story (yes I know the movie isn't that long, but it felt like it). The Lost Daughter had a strong script, and I didn't realize at first that Maggie Gyllenhaal was the one who adapted it as well as directing the movie (well done you!). I think the ending was a little weak, but I dunno. Of the remaining three (CODA, The Power of the Dog, and Drive My Car), I know that Drive My Car was based on a few different stories in a collection, not just the eponymous one, and again, I really love that story, so I think that's where my vote would go.
Now, as for who's gonna win this? I dunno. Maybe Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog, since it's got so many noms, maybe The Lost Daughter because historically the Academy loves to reward actors for stepping out of their lanes. I think I'm hearing the most buzz for CODA, though.
My Choice: Drive My Car
My Prediction: CODA
Best Original Screenplay: Ah, my favorite category. Here's the weird stuff lives...or rather, should. Weirdest thing we have this year is Don't Look Up, which, not gonna lie, I really loved. It was painful to watch, but as is typical of Adam McKay, it managed to keep everything fast and light enough that it doesn't have time to become a bummer. King Richard I could take or leave. Belfast had a strong script, and it didn't feel as self-indulgent or wanky as some other personal stories - such as, hey, Licorice Pizza. And then there's our sole non-Best Picture nom, The Worst Person in the World, which to me falls into the same category as previous nominees like Happy-Go-Lucky and Another Round - entertaining enough, but like, an exemplar of screenwriting? I dunno.
All in all, I think there are some weak entries, here. Licorice Pizza in particular annoys me.
My Choice: Don't Look Up
My Prediction: Belfast
Best Production Design: Not a category I usually talk about, but what the heck. Here we've got Dune, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of MacBeth, West Side Story, and Nightmare Alley. I rather suspect that Dune is going to take this, and in fairness the sets and world-building are pretty fantastic. I think that MacBeth is probably too sparse, although I think the choices were made to evoke live theater in some ways, and that's cool (see also Dogville, if you've got the stomach for a von Trier film). West Side Story is a Spielberg production and it shows; everything is perfect and the world is expertly crafted. I personally like the gritty, dirty, dusty feeling of the design of both The Power of the Dog and, especially, Nightmare Alley, the latter because it goes from the grime of a cheap carnival to the glitzier but somehow still noir upscale scene and back again.
My Choice: Nightmare Alley
My Prediction: Dune
Best Picture: OK. Let's take these one at a time.
Licorice Pizza...man, I dunno. I know that Anderson's movies get recognition and he's made some pretty amazing films, but I didn't enjoy this one much. Some of it is because it's really kind of weak as far as plot goes, some of it is because the main inspiration of the movie is "what if a teenage boy asks an adult woman out and she says yes" (the answer is, she is probably breaking the law, depending on where things go), and part of it is just that although it has some solid performances, it just kinda rambles on and on and never quite takes the risks or reaches the stakes that Boogie Nights did, never gets as weird as Phantom Thread, never resonates like There Will be Blood.
King Richard is a much better film, but what I keep coming back to is that it's weird to do a movie focused on the Williams' sister's dad when they're pretty damned amazing on their own. And, sure, he planned out their lives, but like...that's fucked up, right? Or is it OK because they actually did turn out to be amazing athletes? I don't know. It's a biopic, it was good, it was well-acted, I don't think it's a Best Picture.
Don't Look Up is not going to win. It's in my top three; I like McKay's work, I like social satire, and of course it's satisfying in a schadenfreude kind of way to know that if the world ends, it won't be my fault because I'm one of the smart ones. I think if this wins anything it'll be Screenplay, which is really where the strength of the film is.
Nightmare Alley isn't going to win - it's got no buzz behind it, it's long, violent, and weird. But then again, I've seen weird movies take Best Picture, so who knows? This is another of my favorites; I love noir, I love Guillermo del Toro, I love stories set during the Depression. I kinda wish more of the movie had been set at the carnival, but I think this is probably tied for my favorite Best Picture nom this year.
Tied with Drive My Car, as it happens. There is no way this is winning, but holy cats, it's so good. I saw an article written by a screenwriter (I think) who named this movie as his Best Picture choice, and at the time I thought it sounded kind of pretentious. Having seen it, though, it really isn't. It's poetic, it's moving, and it's hopeful. The movie takes the time it needs to present all of the characters' stories, but even as you learn about them, a lot of things remain mysterious - you never get a fully objective view of anyone. And all of that set against the backdrop of a production of Uncle Vanya, just *mwah*.
Belfast is another coming-of-age story, but unlike Licorice Pizza, this one actually has some heart and some blood to it. We get to see barricades in the street and assholes profiting off the misery, and those are things that are still relevant (and becoming more so, I suppose). Brannagh manages to keep the self-indulgent wankery to a minimum (largely because he didn't act in it). I think the wrong performers got nominated, but the overall movie is impressive. I don't think it's going to win, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
The Power of the Dog has gotten some mixed reviews in addition to all of the acclaim (Sam Elliot was just badmouthing it, which is a little surprising - what is it about podcasts that makes people run their mouths?). I'm actually not familiar with Campion's work (The Piano came out in the 90s before I started following Oscar movies, and all I know about it is that Anna Paquin won an Oscar at age 11). It was darker than I was expecting, and slower paced, but the performances - Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee especially - made it work. This is another one that might very well win it.
West Side Story probably isn't going to win, but I have to say, I thought it was deserving of the nomination. I wasn't sure if it would be or if it was going to get the nom because of nostalgia and because of Spielberg (I think Spielberg got the Director nom because of Spielberg). The choice to keep the Spanish dialog un-subtitled was a good one, as were the changes to the character of Anybodys, the casting of Rita Moreno in the "Doc" role, and the intensity of the very nearly gang-rape scene involving Anita. It can be hard to give older musicals some bite, but this managed.
Dune...fuck me. Look, I've not read the novel(s), and while I've seen the 1984 David Lynch version of Dune, honestly it was so goddamned weird (and I was so very drunk last time I watched it) that I don't really compare it. But I was not impressed by this movie. I thought characters were introduced with very little context, I thought this rather complicated world didn't get enough grounding for a casual viewer, and most of all, I think it violates a pretty important rule of storytelling - if you're not telling us about the most interesting part of the protagonist's life, why not? I know we've got more of these movies to look forward to so maybe it'll improve, but I'm gonna be salty if this wins.
Which leaves us with CODA. I wouldn't have thought this had as much chance as some of the others, but then it won the SAG for Best Cast, and it's getting some buzz. I think the release on Apple+ may hurt it, too. But at the end of the day, is it a deserving movie? The plot is, after all, pretty basic - child of a working class family wants to go away to college, family doesn't entirely get why that's a big deal. The wrinkle is that, as the title says, she's a CODA, but all that does is highlight the themes of family responsibility. It's a classic plot, and a well-made (and well-acted) movie. If it wins, I think that's fine; if nothing else maybe it'll give some hearing folks some understanding or awareness of Deaf culture.
My Choice: Drive My Car
My Prediction: CODA