As always, on this, Oscars Eve, whilst cooking my little face off all day Saturday and Sunday, I also take some time to do up this post about the nominees, my guesses as to the winners, and my preferences as to same.
This year is interesting in that two of the Best Picture nominees were big ol' blockbusters, and that's not often the case. Barbie and Oppenheimer both did gangbusters at the box office; Barbie was actually the first woman-directed movie to break $1 billion, and Oppenheimer is the second-highest grossing R-rated movie of all time (behind Joker). That fact alone puts lie to the pooh-poohing I sometimes see about Barbie in particular; if it really were just a movie about "a doll with big boobs," thanks very much Jo Koy, it might have done well but I doubt very much it would have done better box office than any other live-action comedy ever, particularly in our post-COVID world of not wanting to go to the theaters. Likewise, Oppenheimer is a three-hour biopic filmed partially in black and white, so it's not exactly popcorn viewing. And sure, Christopher Nolan has a fanbase, but after Tenet are they really going to go see a movie just because it's Nolan? I think not.
My point is that both of these movies deserve their nomination, and I think it's very likely that one of them will win, but there are a lot of other strong entries this year. So let's talk about them.
Best Actress: I never do these in any particular order, so sure, we'll start here. It's a pretty strong showing, actually, if a little heavy on white ladies. Lily Gladstone, in addition to being the first Native American woman to be nominated in this category, has already won a SAG and a Globe, and that to me speaks well of her chances. As I think back on Killers of the Flower Moon, though, I find myself remembering Robert De Niro and Leonardo DiCaprio more than her, which I think is down to how the movie was filmed as much as anything. Compare/contrast with Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall, which I think was one of my favorite performances of the year, or Emma Stone in Poor Things, which put her talent very much on display throughout the whole movie.
Not to say that the other two nominees, Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan, aren't worth of the nom. Actually, I was kind of going in to Maestro expecting to be unimpressed by Mulligan (not that she's not a fantastic actress - see also Promising Young Woman - but she's playing Wife and that's not always terribly interesting), but she turned out to be probably my favorite thing about that movie. Likewise, Bening in Nyad made me want to know more about the events of the movie, and engagement is good. I think, though, that in terms of performance the two strongest in this category are Stone and Hüller.
(Now, should Margot Robbie have gotten a nom here? I think maybe yes, but at whose expense? I guess I could have lived with Bening not getting nominated.)
My choice: Emma Stone, but it's a coin flip
My prediction: Lily Gladstone
Best Actor: A bit more diversity here, which is nice. We've got Colman Domingo, Paul Giamatti, and Jeffrey Wright turning in some fantastic performances. Giamatti's is perhaps a little similar to his turn in Sideways, but really he plays a curmudgeon generally and the roles aren't interchangeable. Meanwhile, Wright brings frustration and gravitas to American Fiction, and Domingo gets to play a largely unsung hero in Rustin (I mean, I'd never heard of him). And then there's Bradley Cooper, and while I think his performance as Leonard Bernstein was good, I dunno. It's a biopic. He spent years getting one particular section of conducting right, and like...who for?
And here I kind of wish that, instead of Cooper, we'd have gotten a nom for Teo Yoo, not just because I think it was a worthy performance, but because the Academy has this weird blind spot for nominating Asians in acting awards (yes, I know that Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan won last year, but where was Yeoh's nomination for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon? Where were any nominations for Parasite? I'm not saying it never happens, just that it doesn't happen enough).
Anyway, I suspect Cillian Murphy has this sewn up for Oppenheimer, and I think that's probably the right choice anyway. Complex character, changes throughout the story, and anchors the whole picture, which for a movie this long and complex is work.
My choice & prediction: Cillian Murphy
Best Supporting Actor: Some real heavy hitters, here. So, again, Robert Downey, Jr. won the SAG and the Globe, so that's a decent road map. But with that said, look at the rest of the nominees! Ryan Gosling is likely to benefit from the sheer cultural weight of Barbie and from being the runaway performance from the movie (and the song, obvs). Robert De Niro benefits from being Robert De Niro, though I suspect Killers of the Flower Moon may have peaked a little too early for him to win this. I rather doubt Sterling K. Brown has the juice to pull this off, and it's probably the weakest of the five performances here (no slight to him or the movie, and if by some chance he does win I don't think it'd be undeserved, just by comparison).
Which leaves Mark Ruffalo, playing an absolute scoundrel in Poor Things and going from in control to out of his tiny mind as Bella Baxter chews him up and spits him out. I think this is my favorite of these five performances, but I won't be mad no matter who wins.
My choice: Mark Ruffalo
My prediction: Robert Downey Jr.
Best Supporting Actress: Until this very second I had forgotten Emily Blunt was nominated, so that might say something (not that the nom is undeserved, but there's a lot going on in Oppenheimer and I was more focused on Murphy). From what I've read, Da'Vine Joy Randolph has this more or less sewn up for The Holdovers, and like...OK, sure. It was a good performance. I think I'd rather see America Ferrera or Jodie Foster take it. Actually, if anyone is going to take it other than Randolph, I think it's likely to be Ferrera. She has a killer speech and scene in Barbie, she has some nice emotional moments, is it going to be enough to overcome the "movie about a doll" problem? I don't know.
Foster isn't likely to take it; I don't think Nyad has the momentum, but I really did like her performance. Very definitely a supporting role, as it her character keeps the story (and Bening's character) on track and provides a stability for the viewer.
I do know that I saw The Color Purple the other night and hated it, so I can't really root for Danielle Brooks, but in all fairness I loved her in Peacemaker.
My choice: America Ferrera
My prediction: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Best Animated Feature: Alas, I've only seen four of the five this year. Robot Dreams is not streaming or showing anywhere that I could find, and since Netflix dropped its DVD service and can fuck off always and forever for doing that (physical media 5eva), I didn't manage to see it. Which is fine, because there's no way it's winning anyway.
So of the four that I did see, we have the Studio Ghibli acid trip that is The Boy & The Heron, the newest installment of the baffling real-life acid trip that is Sony's handling of the Spider-Man IP (that'd be Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse), a story of love and revolution that has a really dramatic production (that'd be Nimona), and...feel like I'm forgetting one. Oh, right, Elemental.
If Pixar had made Elemental 10 years ago it would have been amazing, but as it is it feels like it's nothing new. Also, I remember someone making a point of saying that Elemental contains a non-binary and/or queer character, and like, yeah, and they're in exactly one scene and get 1 or 0 lines. Meanwhile, Nimona's main character (voiced by Riz Ahmed) is actually a gay man with a love story and a kiss and everything, and holy shit, the world didn't end.
With all of that said, all four of these movies are pretty solid (I mean, I don't think Elemental anything to write home about but it's not bad). I think The Boy & The Heron is probably the favorite, followed by Spider-verse, and I think the former is more likely to take it just due to name recognition from Hayao Miyazaki. Spider-verse is amazing, but we saw this animation style in 2018 (and it won then), so I don't think it'll win this time.
My choice: Nimona
My prediction: The Boy & The Heron
Best Adapted Screenplay: First of all, I think it's garbage that Barbie is here instead of Original Screenplay. I don't understand the rules, I guess. But whatever. I also think it's unfortunate that Poor Things has to compete with Barbie and Oppenheimer. Oh, and we also get American Fiction and The Zone of Interest, both based on novels.
American Fiction is interesting because evidently, the entire text of the novel-within-a-novel (that would be My Pafology or Fuck, depending on when in the story you join us) is included within the novel Erasure, and one of the...not criticisms, I guess, but points of interest I found about American Fiction is that the movie's marketing leaned heavily on the satire while the movie itself spent as much or more time with Monk's family and that whole storyline. That doesn't matter much in terms of this award because I think that Barbie or Oppenheimer is going to take it. And that's actually OK, those are both strong scripts.
I think my preference is between Barbie and Poor Things, actually. The writing is on clear display in both movies, but I think it's probably the strongest part of the movie in Barbie.
My choice: Barbie
My prediction: Oppenheimer, I guess?
Best Original Screenplay: Past Lives confounds me some. It's by no means a bad or badly made movie, but it seems a little...thin, I guess, to be getting the accolades it is? It's a sad or bittersweet love story, and as I'm thinking about it, I think I'd rather have seen it get just the screenplay nom than that and a Best Picture. But I don't think it's going to win here.
I rather suspect The Holdovers is going to win, though I guess it's not out of the realm of possibility that Maestro does if the Academy feels like Bradley Cooper should get something. My particular preference is the taut, disturbing legal drama that is Anatomy of a Fall, but I think Academy voters are going to reward The Holdovers. I don't think May December has the juice to get the win (it was good, but I don't feel like they stuck the landing, and apropos of nothing Charles Melton should have gotten a Best Supporting Actor nom).
My choice: Anatomy of a Fall
My prediction: The Holdovers
Best Cinematography: As I've said in past years, I never know how to call this. Thinking about the five nominees (Poor Things, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, and the fuckin' weird vampire movie El Conde), the one that visually stuck with me the most is Poor Things by a country mile. (From a technical standpoint, I think the sound design in Oppenheimer was more affecting.)
My choice: Poor Things
My prediction: I dunno, Variety is calling this for Oppenheimer, so I'll go along with them
Best Director: I guess it was too much to expect to have more than one woman nominated here. Or, like, any POC. Where's Cord Jefferson? Where's Greta Gerwig? Either of them should have been here over Martin Scorsese. Hell, I wouldn't have been sad to see either of them instead of Jonathan Glazer, honestly.
The other three, though, do thoroughly deserve their noms. It's widely accepted that Christopher Nolan is going to finally get an Oscar for Oppenheimer, and I'm OK with that, given the nominees, although if Justine Triet beats him I'll raise a glass because Anatomy of a Fall was amazing. Likewise, I don't think Yorgos Lanthimos is taking this home this year, but I'm happy he finally got the nom because I really like his weird, quasi-magical-realism (The Favourite notwithstanding; I liked that one, too, but no magical realism).
I think the best-directed films on this list were Anatomy of a Fall and Poor Things, with Oppenheimer a close third, but I also know that Oscars often go to people for their career rather than a particular movie, so again, if Nolan takes it I'm OK with it. I'd better see Triet here again, though.
My choice: Justine Triet
My prediction: Christopher Nolan
Best Picture: OK, then. Let's kick out the ones that aren't going to win. Past Lives isn't taking it, and I rather suspect Anatomy of a Fall isn't either. I don't think American Fiction has the recognition to get over Barbenheimer, either. Killers of the Flower Moon was looking like a contender early in the season, but I think it's too long and too heavy (and I don't know if I'm the only one that feels this way, but didn't it feel like Goodfellas with some change in set dressing and a much less likeable lead?). Maestro and The Holdovers, we can probably count out, too.
Variety mentioned The Zone of Interest as a contender, and that surprises me. I actually think they're just talking out of their butts, because if anything beats Oppenheimer I think it's likely to be Poor Things or Barbie.
So how likely is that? Barbie hasn't done especially well on awards leading up to the Oscars, and as I talk to people about the Oscars (my coworkers know I take the day after Oscars off, which inevitably leads to them asking what my opinions are, and I always feel like Bill Murray in the beginning of Groundhog Day - "did you want to talk about movies or are you just making chit-chat?") I find that a lot of people don't see Barbie as particularly deep cinema. Which is a shame, because it manages to have as much to say as any other Oscar nominee, but does so in very smart and very accessible ways. I think, though, that it's not likely to win here.
Poor Things might be my favorite of the Best Picture nominees. It's weird, it's colorful, and it has some truly over-the-top performances that somehow fit into this odd sci-fi/romance/comedy...thing that Lanthimos created. Ten years ago I'd have said it was too weird for a Best Picture, but that was before Shape of Water, Moonlight, and Parasite won. I still think that it's not going to be enough to topple Oppenheimer.
My choice: Poor Things
My prediction: Oppenheimer